By Adam Diehl/ProView Networks
For Enchantment Sports
Okay boys and girls, it’s that time of the year. Every high school hoops season I try and predict the boys and girls state tournament brackets. There is a formula to this madness and I’ll try to explain that to you. The NMAA has six criteria it uses to seed a field of 16 teams in the basketball tournament. In no particular order, 1. Finish in District play. 2. Max prep Rankings. 3. Overall record. 4. Head to Head. 5. Wins against other district champs regardless of class. 6. Coach’s input form, a.k.a coaches last top 16 poll. I take this criteria and use the NMAA rules and then add in my own predictions for the remainder of the season. So here we go!
#1 Volcano Vista vs. #16 Gadsden- William Benjamin, head coach of Las Cruces, is not going to like me putting this out there. But by NMAA criteria Volcano Vista is ahead of Las Cruces. You might be scratching your head, considering Las Cruces is undefeated. Max Preps rankings has flipped Volcano and Las Cruces. Gadsden is hanging on by a thread. And they do have a loss to Carlsbad who might be the last team out. If Cbad can grab a late district win here they can jump in. Gadsden can guarantee a playoff spot with a win at home against Mayfield though.
#8 Hobbs vs. #9 La Cueva- Hobbs benefits from a Santa Fe loss. They can still win their district if they can get revenge on Clovis at home. But they can’t slip up at Roswell. La Cueva is flirting with a home game. All they have to do is beat Eldorado this week on the road (LIVE on MY50TV) and they will win district and get a top 10 seed.
#4 Cleveland vs. #13 Santa Fe- Cleveland really hurt themselves with a loss at Volcano by the miracle Jake Deathridge bank 3. But everyone is afraid, or should afraid to play this team in March. Santa Fe had a brutal loss to ABQ high on Friday. Manzano keep winning, Santa Fe keep losing, and everyone in this district should be praying the ABQ high doesn’t stay hot.
#5 Atrisco vs. #12 Manzano- Atrisco can improve this seed with some district wins this week. They are at Rio Rancho and home to Cleveland. It could be a great week for the Jags, or a terrible one. Manzano has played themselves into the mix. They are tied with ABQ High for the district lead. A win against Santa Fe this week could be the win they need to get in.
#3 Rio Rancho vs. #14 Capital- Rio Rancho with a win Tuesday night against Atrisco can lock this seed in and keep their hopes of a district championship alive. Capital is going the wrong way, I think they get some wins down the stretch to get in. Biggest game is against ABQ High this week. Lose and they could be out.
#6 Eldorado vs. #11 Onate- Eldorado can’t lose at home to their rival La Cueva Friday or they won’t have a home game. Hard to believe with a team who has maybe the best players in the state with Kameron Valencia and Tyler Quintana. Onate has already beaten Eldorado in the Duke City this year, so they would love this match up. Onate needs to take 2nd place in the southern district to keep this seed.
#7 Clovis vs. #10 Roswell- Clovis has almost guaranteed themselves a home game with their big wins. They are looking good to at minimum tie for a district 1st place.
#2 Las Cruces vs. #15 Mayfield- Las Cruces aren’t going to like this seed. Their schedule isn’t the toughest, but so what. This will be a tough pill to swallow if it stays like this. Especially since this team thought they were slighted last year. Mayfield are probably in, but losing to Gadsden this week could hurt.
- Albuquerque- is now 4-2 and tied for the lead in district play. If they can beat Capital and Manzano in the next week they will blow this bracket right up!
2. Carlsbad- They need a big district win, and they need Gadsden to drop a couple more games. They have the head to head win against the Panthers, but lose in all other criteria.